ENQUÊTE SUR LES PRATIQUES, LES PRIORITÉS ET LES ATTENTES DES POPULATIONS URBAINES DE GUINEE DANS LA PERSPECTIVE DES ELECTIONS LOCALES
Association Guinéenne de Sciences Politiques
Décembre 2016
Résumé
L’Association Guinéenne de Sciences Politiques (AGSP) est une ONG de droit guinéen qui existe depuis 2012 (http://agsp.ovh). Elle agit pour la promotion d’un développement durable en République de Guinée, notamment par des activités de recherche dans les domaines politiques et sociologiques, le renforcement des données statistiques et la promotion de la culture politique et démocratique. Cette étude s’inscrit dans le cadre de son plan d’action 2016-2017. Elle porte sur les pratiques, les priorités et les attentes des populations des communes urbaines de Guinée dans la perspective des élections locales. Elle a été rendue possible par le programme PACTE-Guinée mis en œuvre par le Centre Européen d’Appui aux Processus Electoral (ECES) et financé par l’Union européenne. L’enquête a été conduite du 8 au 15 septembre 2016. Elle s’est appuyée sur un échantillon empirique raisonné composé de 6 000 personnes en âge de voter et s’est basée sur la méthode des itinéraires. La répartition du fichier électoral du dernier recensement électoral de la CENI a été utilisée afin de construire des quotas centrés sur les données disponibles et utilisables (genre et quartier). 5 781 questionnaires exploitables ont été administrés sur l’ensemble des communes urbaines de Guinée. Cette enquête sur les pratiques, les priorités et les attentes des populations des communes urbaines de Guinée dans la perspective des élections locales démontre l’importance du niveau de gouvernance communal pour les populations. Malgré les différences observables entre les communes, plusieurs conclusions globales peuvent être tirées. La commune est considérée comme importante ou très importante dans leur vie de tous les jours par 67,4 % des enquêtés. Ils sont 24,7 % à compter surtout sur elle pour répondre à leurs besoins et 28,1 % à compter autant sur la commune que sur le gouvernement.
La mobilité entre les communes est très élevée et très régulière et s’explique pour des raisons principalement familiales, économiques et professionnelles. Moins fréquente, la mobilité depuis les communes de la zone spéciale de Conakry vers l’intérieur du pays et inversement depuis l’intérieur du pays vers Conakry est également importante (72,6 %). Cette mobilité est un facteur à prendre en compte par les autorités, notamment pour envisager des collaborations intercommunales. L’information sur les activités se déroulant dans la commune est un élément important pour la transparence de la gouvernance et l’accès aux services de base. Les populations estiment être insuffisamment informées et souhaitent l’être davantage. Les médias sont le principal canal d’information, à la fois existant et souhaité mais l’enquête indique que les populations aimeraient davantage de contacts directs avec les autorités locales, par exemple sous la forme de visites dans les quartiers, les associations ou de réunions. Les sujets liés à la vie politique et aux problèmes de la commune ainsi que l’emploi et le développement intéressent particulièrement les enquêtés. La très grande diversité des sujets cités met toutefois en évidence la nécessité d’une communication large. La consultation des populations par les autorités peut contribuer à améliorer la gouvernance et la délivrance de services qui répondent davantage aux priorités locales. 69,2 % des enquêtés souhaitent être davantage consultés, principalement sous la forme d’un contact direct. En ce qui concerne les élections locales, elles sont largement souhaitées (79,6 % des enquêtés) et les répondants jugeaient important qu’elles soient organisées comme prévu en 2016. Le taux de participation aux élections est un indicateur clé dans une démocratie. Sur cette question, 80,9 % des enquêtés déclarent qu’ils iront voter aux prochaines élections communales, confirmant l’importance qu’ils leur accordent. 38,5 % se déclarent prêts à participer à la campagne électorale d’un parti et 3 19,9 % à être candidat. La première raison invoquée pour le choix d’une liste est son programme (37,4 %) mais la confiance personnelle faite aux candidats de la liste arrive en deuxième position (16,3 %). Le vote pour les femmes et le vote pour les jeunes sont des enjeux démocratiques importants en Guinée. Les populations urbaines de Guinée y sont majoritairement favorables. 62,8 % des enquêtés se déclarent prêts à voter pour une femme et 76,5 % à voter pour un jeune. Les réponses positives sont justifiées sur la base des principes d’égalité, des qualités présentées comme spécifiques aux femmes ou aux jeunes et à la promotion de leurs droits et de leurs intérêts. Au niveau des qualités attendues chez le futur maire, le niveau d’instruction et l’engagement à être actif dans la commune arrivent en tête (28,3 % et 23,3 %). L’appartenance partisane et l’appartenance communautaire ont les scores les plus bas (6 % et 2,2 %). Ces résultats mettent en évidence l’importance des qualités personnelles du candidat pour les électeurs. Les enquêtés sont 49,5 % à penser que leur situation s’améliorera après les prochaines élections et leur principale priorité pour l’avenir est l’emploi qu’ils souhaitent (à 32,6 %) voir placé en première place du programme de leur futur maire. Parmi les enquêtés s’étant déclarés membre d’un parti politique : 24,5 % ont cité l’UFDG ; 21,9 % le RPG ; 8,6 % l’UFR ; 3,6 % le PEDN ; 5,3 % un autre parti. Les intentions de vote si une élection était organisée au niveau national le jour de l’enquête sont les suivantes : UFDG, 21 % ; RPG, 13,3 % ; UFR, 6,4 % ; PEDN, 2,5 % ; la Mouvance, 0,6 % ; l’Opposition, 0,2 % ; Autre, 3,4 % ; refus de répondre, 41,7 %.
« Clause de non responsabilité : Cette publication a été réalisée avec l’aide de l’Union européenne. Son contenu relève de la seule responsabilité de l’AGSP et ne peut aucunement être considéré comme reflétant le point de vue de l’Union européenne ».
Plus d’infos sur: http://agsp.ovh
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